Dubai’s economy and real estate market is showing resilience according to analysis released today by Juwai IQI Co-Founder and Group CEO Kashif Ansari. What’s more, he explained, both the economy and real estate is expected to rebound significantly in 2027.

Why Dubai’s Property Market Shrugged Off the Conflict

Mr Ansari explained, “Foreign buyers have been loyal to the real estate market ever since the conflict began.

“According to the data, in the first quarter, foreign buyers invested 26% more in Dubai residential real estate than a year ago. They spent more, but they also snapped up more properties, with the number of foreign buyer transactions growing by 11% to more than 48,000.

“We see this in our own, internal data at Juwai IQI, which reveals Chinese buyer interest has continued to strengthen. Chinese buyers made 7% more property enquiries in the first quarter than a year earlier. That continued to climb in April the first 15 days of May, suggesting that second activity will be at least as high as in Q1.

“So foreign investors are both buying more properties and spending more overall, but they are not alone.”

Homegrown Demand Held Strong

“It turns out that local buyers have been equally committed,” said Mr Ansari.

“The total number of home buyers grew 8% to 48,448. What really gets your attention is that some 60% of all buyers (29,312 in total) were first time buyers. First-time buyer numbers were 14% higher than a year earlier.

“When renters convert to buyers, it suggests they still have great confidence in the market.

“Buyers from other Gulf nations are also crowding into Dubai’s property market. They invested 14% more in Dubai’s residential property market in the first quarter than a year earlier. Their new quarterly total is AED12.23 billion.

“In April, too, the data also paints a strong picture. Total transactions grew by more than 20% compared to March, the average sales price was 2% above year-earlier levels, and the average price per sq ft for apartments was up by 16.1% annually.”

The Four Engines of Dubai’s Recovery

Mr Ansari said, “I can even name the specific month in which the rebound will begin. It will be October 2026, as the scorching summer heat begins to ease and tourism starts climbing back from its annual lows. Overseas arrivals in June are 41% lower than at their annual peak in December.

“That explains why I believe the boom, particularly in the real estate market, will begin in October.

“The growth boom will be a result of four factors, including trade, which is booming thanks in part the UAE’s network of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements. With the Strait of Hormuz open, Dubai’s trade flows are projected to grow by nearly 18% in 2027.

“Tourism is another growth sector. Annual overseas arrivals will climb by millions by 2030, thanks in part to ongoing big investments like the Al Maktoum International Airport expansion, the Palm Jebel Ali development, and the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi, which should open this year.

“Given that the UAE’s biggest export is no longer petroleum but money, the financial sector is another growth driver that will be much stronger in 2027. Banks are exceptionally well-capitalised, and the government has the ability to keep executing its long-term growth strategies and attracting investment thanks to its massive financial assets, which are equivalent to 184% of GDP.

“The artificial intelligence boom is also set to accelerate, as a result of the UAE’s ambitious national vision to lead the world and transform governmental services with AI, and the offer of inexpensive electricity and land for resource-intensive data centres.

“Dubai has absorbed shocks before, such as the financial crisis, the pandemic, and oil price collapses. It comes out stronger each time. What I see today is the same pattern. The buyers are still coming. The projects are still going up. That’s why I believe October will be the month that Dubai’s economy and property markets begin to further accelerate, leading us into an even stronger 2027.”