Dubai home prices are likely to boom through the year 2030 on the back of surprisingly strong population growth and new infrastructure, according to new analysis from Juwai IQI, said the company’s Co-Founder and Group CEO, Kashif Ansari, today.

“The latest data reveals that Dubai’s population growth is outpacing almost everyone’s forecast,” said Mr Ansari. “As a result, the emirate will need roughly 385,000 to 470,000 new homes by the end of the decade. That assumes an average household size of 3.9 persons.

“To be fair to developers, they are not sitting on their hands. They have announced plans to build about 385,000 new residences by 2030.However, even if they manage to build every single one of those on time, demand will still outstrip construction and will push prices and rents significantly higher.

“That’s why we think the predictions of an oversupply and price softness that some have made are wrong. Instead, we see strong price increases through 2030, similar to the 80% increase REIDIN Data Analytics reported over the past five years.

Population Growth to Beat Expectations

Mr Ansari said, “We looked at three realistic and conservative scenarios for how fast Dubai’s population will grow, based on past trends.

“In the first scenario we simply extended the same growth rate from the first half of 2026, about 7% annually, to the full period to 2030. At that pace, Dubai’s population will hit about 6.4 million, and we will need about 472,000 new homes to house all those people.

“Our second forecast is based on the 6.4% average growth rate that prevailed in the years 2000 through 2024. At 6.4%, Dubai’s population would hit 6.26 million by 2030, and the emirate would need some 431,000 new homes by that year.

“In our third and most conservative estimate, we assumed population growth of 300,000 persons per year, which is the average number of new residents in the emirate in 2024 and 2025. That would take Dubai to a total of 6.08 million and require about 385,000 new homes to house those new residents.”

 

Infrastructure to Supercharge Growth

“Infrastructure is a pillar of competitiveness and has a huge impact on housing,” said Mr Ansari. “Dubai scores very well on this. Its impressive infrastructure is one reason the UAE ranks fifth on the IMD World Competitiveness Ranking.

“Dubai is currently investing hundreds of billions in the roads, rails, cables, pipes, and ports that enable modern society. There’s the Dubai Metro Blue and Metro Gold Lines, the Al Maktoum International Airport, and the Dubai link on the Etihad Rail passenger service, among many others.

“All these projects will help ensure that Dubai can accommodate its rapid population growth and that it’s new residents will be able to thrive.

“In sum, population growth is good news for anyone who owns Dubai property, as the new demand will drive further growth in both prices and rents. And Dubai’s infrastructure programme is among the world’s best. 

“I hope I have made clear both that the Emirate is growing faster thanexpected and that, while developers may not build new homes as fast as the expanding population warrants, the government is laying down the infrastructure needed to support it.”